Following a total of 11.5mm of rain in March we are now halfway through April without any rain, but mixed weather is forecast for later this week when temperatures will have dropped from the high teens down to around 12C which is around where temperatures should be at this time of year.
Winter crops surprisingly do not appear to be suffering from lack of moisture, but spring crops need some rain. To date we have had 67mm or nearly 3 inches of rain where March was the sixth driest March on record, and we have only had just over 50% of the average rainfall for the year to date.
Markets and tariffs
Since President Trump announced his raft of tariffs which came into force at the beginning of April there has been chaos with decisions being changed on a regular basis, some rates have been altered and some tariffs delayed for several months.
Last week Trump announced a temporary suspension of tariff increases for most countries, while stepping up pressure on China which pushed Chicago futures for soybeans and wheat higher. Price volatility of cereals and oilseeds has increased since the announcement of the tariffs, due to uncertainties around global demand, particularly from China who are the world’s biggest buyer.
Oilseeds have taken the biggest hit, largely because a bigger share of global production is exported, and China is the main buyer of soybeans. President Trump appears to have ignored the rules of international trade as the World Trade organization of which the US is a member along with 165 other countries covering 98% of world trade, exists to lower barriers to trade for the economic benefit of all members.
These WTO agreements are negotiated and signed by a large majority of the world’s trading economies and form the legal foundation for global trade. One area where the US tariffs could impact the UK industry and growers is in the malting barley markets as the US is the top export destination, by value, for Scotch whisky.
The Scotch Whisky Association reports the value of Scotch whisky exports to the US stood at £971m in 2024 or 18% of the total value of whisky exports. The US was also the third largest destination by volume behind India and France in 2024. Further increased costs for US consumers due to increased tariffs pose a further risk to export levels which could reduce domestic malting demand, which is already under pressure.
Information from AHDB shows that in February 2025 Brewers Maltsters and Distillers used just 135,600t of barley which is 10% lower than in February 2024 and the lowest monthly total since February 2022. From July 2024 -February 2025 usage is down 9% on the same period last season and demand is under pressure due to the cost of living impacting spending within the UK and trends for younger people to drink less alcohol.
This decline in consumption and slow malting barley demand in Europe is why malting premiums have fallen sharply this season. Earlier in the month sterling reached an almost five-month high against the US dollar in response to the tariff announcement due to concerns about how global trade, which is dominated by the US dollar, could be impacted.
Sterling fell by 3.5% against the euro as the euro was considerably up against the US dollar and these rises make sterling and euro-priced goods more expensive in the global market which often trades in US dollars.
As a result, domestic and European prices may need to be reduced to maintain export demand in a global market. The UK’s main exports to the US include machinery, cars, pharmaceuticals, and electronics and includes a 25% tariff on foreign made cars. UK exports also include £2.9m fresh and frozen beef, £23m pork and £68m of cheese.
Global crop update
The US total wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 18.4m ha, which is down 2% from 2024 and would be the second lowest total wheat planted area since records began in 1919 with the 2025 winter wheat area being estimated at 13.5m ha.
The area planted with maize in 2025 is estimated at 38.5m ha an increase of 5% compared to last year. The increase in maize area is mainly due to a 4% decrease in the soybean area from 2024. The decline in the US wheat area should help support prices but the focus will be on the crop condition and weather forecast going forward.
The US has seen a trend of rising wheat yields over the past 10 years, so the drop in the planted area may not have a significant impact on final wheat production. For the US market more maize planted areas could put pressure on feed grain prices but the lower wheat area could support milling wheat premium over feed grain.
As of April 6, 48% of the US winter wheat crop was rated as good or excellent, compared with 56% at the same time last year. In addition, 21% of the crops were rated as poor or very poor, compared with 12% last year.
Overall, the US winter wheat crop condition is much better than in 2022 and 2023, when drought severely impacted yields. However, some regions are still feeling the effects of drought such as Kansas and Oklahoma, two of the largest winter wheat-producing states where crop ratings are 17% and 18% poor or very poor respectively, compared to 14% and 8% at this time last year.
There have also been reports of potential wheat crop damage in Russia with their third largest wheat growing area, Stropol, which produced 8% of Russia’s 82.6mt in 2024. Hailstorms damaged crops after early spring frosts and heavy snow are forecast to affect other regions as well.
Support for wheat prices came from Australia where production could drop by 16% due to very dry conditions in parts of Victoria and South Australia. Their 2025-26 wheat crop is estimated at 28.6mt, down from 30.5mt estimated in March.
Wheat exports
US wheat export sales for the week ending March 27 were reported at 340,000t which was 40% above the four-week average and export sales of maize rose to 1.17mt but the response to US tariffs could reduce the pace of exports in the coming weeks.
Russia’s wheat exports for march were estimated at 1.9mt, well below the 4.8mt exported in March last year and the forecast for April wheat exports is expected to be 1.6-2.0mt compared to 5mt in April 2024.The EU weekly wheat exports up to April 6 rose to 681,000t, one of the biggest weekly tonnages of this season.
The total tonnage of 16.35mt still compares poorly with last year’s 25mt. UK exports are quoted at 1.1mt but are around half a million tonnes behind the actual figures from UK Customs data.
On the import front Nigeria has the highest import tonnage at 2.3mt, followed by Morocco at 2.2mt, Algeria is third at 1.4mt and then the UK is next. Romania is the leading EU wheat exporter at 4.5mt followed by France at 1.78mt.
Oilseeds
Oilseeds are more likely to be affected by tariff concerns due to their higher export share of world production. Almost 44% of global soybean production has been exported on average over the last five years compared with 16% and 27% for maize and wheat respectively.
US tariffs particularly on Chinese goods and falling crude oil prices have pressurised soybean prices over the past few years and Brent crude oil futures for June 2025 have fallen 16% since April 2. EU rapeseed production for 2025-26 is forecast at 19.9mt, a rise of 13% from 2024-25 due to better weather for oilseeds production.
EU rapeseed imports for the current season totalled 5.18mt up to April 6, up from 4.55mt a year ago with Australia and Canada increasing their share of EU rapeseed imports compared to last year. Rapeseed delivered into Erith in May was quoted at £454/t last week, up £2 from the previous week.
It is very difficult to predict what commodity prices will do in future as long as the goal posts keep changing with regards to what President Trumps announces next. Much will depend on how much China retaliates to the US tariff demands and to what level of tariffs will be imposed on US goods in response to Trumps latest demands.
