Speaking at this year’s AgriScot at Ingliston Olivia Bonser from AHDB told farmers that there is on-going less demand for barley in the alcohol sector which is underpinned by younger people not drinking as much as previous generations.
There have been consecutive declines in alcohol sales in the UK for the last two years. Spirits have shown the sharpest drop with a decline of 12% compared to two years ago which is double the fall of the wider alcohol sector. Beer and lager dropped 6% in contrast with non-alcoholic beers which jumped 9% over the last two years.
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Explaining the underlying reasons for the change Ms Bonser said: “One of the key drivers in falling demand for brewing and distilling was the increasing number of non-drinkers.”
A recent study by market research company, Kantar found that more than a quarter of 18 to 24 year olds do not drink alcohol, which is reducing grain demand for brewing and distilling. In the last year the number of people describing themselves as non-drinkers has risen from 13 to 14.8% of the population.
Mr Charles Tozer from Boormalt added: “We are seeing a shift from hotels and pubs to drinking at home, which was initially started at Covid and is still strong. Whisky distilling is still seeing expansion and consistent growth but we are seeing signs of pull backs.
“There are still investments within distillers looking at their own carbon foot print, but there is concern over export demand for whisky.
Whilst demand from the alcohol sector is shrinking however feed barley demand has remained strong with a predicted rise of 8% which is up on 4% on the five year average. AHDB expect more feed barley to be put into rations at the expense of wheat.”
The 2024 AHDB Cereal Quality Survey (CQS), recently released confirms that the quality of harvest is down, reporting low protein for wheat and low nitrogen levels in barley.
Persistent wet conditions through autumn and winter 2023/24, plus much of spring 2024, meant it was difficult for farmers to get onto fields and apply nutrients. The conditions also increased nitrogen leaching over winter, making it harder for plants to access the nutrients that were applied.
According to Gabriel Odiase analyst, cereals and oilseeds for AHDB, the average protein level for UK Flour Millers group 1 wheat varieties in 2024 is 12.5%, down from the 2023 average of 12.7%. It is also the lowest level since 2014, when proteins declined due to the dilution effect of high yields. “However, as suggested by reports during harvest, other criteria for wheat in 2024 are improved with higher specific weights and Hagberg Falling Numbers (HFN).
AHDB’s early balance sheet forecasts a further increase in imports of wheat, up 163 Kt from 2023/24’s already elevated level, to 2.6 Mt in 2024/25. “When the information from the two surveys are combined it suggests the area of group ones effectively meeting flour millers’ typical requirements this season would still be well below average. UK wheat yields were also provisionally lower than in 2023, which could also reduce production. “Importantly, this year’s challenges with ergot created extra difficulties for growers and the supply chain,” added Gabriel Odiase.